Predicting fetal growth retardation: mathematical modeling

Introduction. Annually, more than 13 million neonates are born with fetal growth retardation (FGR) worldwide. FGR increases prenatal mortality and morbidity. Due to no effective treatments for available, its prevention prognosis of extreme relevance. Aim: development prognostic clinical anamnestic mathematical model assessing a risk developing during pregnancy. Materials Methods. A prospective, controlled, open, continuous study was performed. The main group (1) included 75 patients who had pregnancy; the control (2) consisted 414 women favorable pregnancy outcome. All subjects underwent examination, including collecting medical history, complex diagnostics in first trimester – ultrasound, Doppler uterine arteries, serum level pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), free beta-subunit human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), placental factor (PlGF), non-invasive test (NIPT). Results. To determine relative contribution each individual trait formation develop index, discriminant analysis carried out, on basis which F-index developed. formula calculating includes age pregnant woman, obstetric history data, method conception, recorded nicotine addiction pregnancy, detected fibroids, body mass biochemical parameters (PAPP-A, β-hCG, PlGF), nuchal translucency fetus, pulsation index artery, fraction gender (determined NIPT). sensitivity specificity were 90.1 82.18 % respectively, effectiveness 83.97 %. Conclusion. developed predicting can be used practice form groups choose tactics management.